There’s been a dramatic increase in the number of younger women in the United States who don’t have children, according to new research.
There were 5.7 million more childless women of prime childbearing age than expected in 2024, up from 2.1 million in 2016 and 4.7 million in 2022, according to a paper produced by the University of New Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy.
Over the past 17 years, this has resulted in nearly 12 million fewer births than expected, researchers said.
Researcher Kenneth Johnson, a professor of sociology, stated in a news release: “Childless rates increased the most among women under 30, where fertility rate declines were also greatest.”
Johnson added: “In 2024, there were 4 million more women aged 20–39 than in 2006, but 7 million fewer have given birth — that’s an increase of 45%.”
Study Methodology
Johnson analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau along with birth and fertility statistics from the National Center for Health Statistics.
Key Findings
The data reveals that if fertility patterns occurring just before the Great Recession (late 2007 to mid-2009) had continued, about 25% more women between ages 20 and 39—an estimated 4.4 million—would have had at least two children in 2024.
Another 15%, or 1.3 million, more women would have had a single child, the study found.
Combined, that’s 5.7 million women who might have been expected to have children but have instead remained childless.
Alongside a significant increase in childless rates among women under 30, there’s also been a modest rise in childlessness among women in their 30s, results showed.
Fertility rates increased modestly among women ages 35 to 49, but the gains among older women weren’t large enough to offset increased childlessness among younger women, the paper noted.
Potential Societal Impacts
Johnson stated: “The critical question is what kind of impact will this have on society.”
He explained: “While it’s possible that women who are currently delaying having children may still have them, the substantial rise in the proportion of childless women contributes to something called the ‘demographic cliff’ where the decision to not have children could have significant implications for health care, schools, child-related businesses and eventually for the labor force.”
Factors Contributing to Childlessness
Many factors likely influence some women’s decision not to have children, Johnson said.
These include the rapid increase in housing costs, the growing expense of raising children, limited access to childcare and family leave, lower marriage rates, and greater educational and employment opportunities for women.
Study Limitations
This study was funded by the federal government and the state of New Hampshire but has not appeared in a peer-reviewed journal.
The report emerges at a time when the Trump administration is considering incentives to increase the nation’s birthrate.
This research highlights a significant demographic shift in the United States, with potential long-term implications for economic growth, social systems, and workforce dynamics. The findings underscore the complex interplay of economic pressures, social changes, and personal choices shaping family formation decisions among younger generations.